If we assume that the 12,000 are all the heavier fuel consuming ships, ships could continue to use 2.5m bpd of HSFO in 2020. Refinery complexity is commonly measured using the Nelson Complexity Index (NCI). Create a CMEGroup.com Account: More features, more insights. 1: Rotterdam/Antwerp: $ 300: $ 375 BunkerEx, a company focused on technology solutions for bunker procurement has already seen demand from shipping companies for EUA, CER and VER Carbon Credits as a hedge against upcoming regulations. Existing flows of 3.5% HSFO will likely stop. Demand for HSFO, the main vessel fuel since the 1960’s, will fall from 3.5 mb/d to 1.4 mb/d in just one year. Oil price information Last update: 2020-12-21 Nr. Stream live futures and options market data directly from CME Group. The average oil price within the current or previous consumption month(s) is used as the index price. Understand how CME Group can help you navigate new initial margin regulatory and reporting requirements. Index: IFO 380: VLSFO 0.5: MGO 0.1: World [? This index was originally developed in 1960 as a single metric to quantity the sophistication of different refineries. The price effects will occur once demand changes, at some point before the January cut-off date." Wholesale prices are forecast to fall in NSW and Victoria every year until 2025 with the exception of NSW in 2023. Singapore has two main sources of natural gas: Piped Natural Gas … IEA 2019. LNG, although much talked about will likely account for <1% of demand in 2020. OPEC Forecasts Falling HFO Prices and More Scrubber Orders File image. $114/mt). In addition, our HSFO cracks remain slightly below market forwards (-$20/bbl vs. market forwards at -$17.50/bbl). We also assume that 50% of the small vessels (15% of fuel use or 0.4m bpd of HSFO) will not comply. Several majors have already announced they will have 0.5% VLSFO blends available in the major ports, however current blends are priced at near-parity to 0.1% MGO. We also look at events that cause oil price movements. 0.1% MGO will likely be the dominant bunker fuel of choice however refinery supply restrictions will make this much more expensive. Conference ERCOT sees 15.5% reserve margin, up from 2020's 12.6%, down from May forecast. Switch to LNG Non-compliance is also possible. Port HSFO-380 VLSFO 0.5% ULSFO 0.1% MGO Deliv. 0.5% VLSFO will be attractive based on its price differential to 0.1% MGO. All rights reserved. 25% of future bunker demand will come from new compliant fuels. With refining capacity already strained and distillate cracks already incentivising high yields, it’s likely to result in an increase in 0.1% MGO price by at least $120/mt in order to compete with other end consumers and incentivise higher refinery output. Detailed forecast table. We are instead now less constructive on distillate cracks, with a forecast close to market forwards ($18.50/bbl vs. market forwards at $19/bbl), in part due to weaker expected economic growth. HSFO demand will creep back up in the coming years as more scrubbers are installed. Detailed forecast table. The tone of IMO … $20.00 Skagen. Index: IFO 380: VLSFO 0.5: MGO 0.1: World [? Please choose another time period or contract. Net, at our $60/bbl Brent forecast for next year, we now forecast more upside to 2020 gasoline cracks than previously ($8.50/bbl vs. … Hear from active traders about their experience adding CME Group futures and options on futures to their portfolio. HSFO's record discounts to crude globally helped bring about a demand recovery, led by US refiner buying. S&P Global Platts Analytics forecasts that around 2,200 vessels … Evaluate your margin requirements using our interactive margin calculator. Prices for fuel oil in Rotterdam in May are trading at about an $8.20 a barrel discount to Brent crude, according to fair value data compiled by Bloomberg. $20.00 Lanshan. Oil demand growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.2 mb/d, supported partly by prices remaining relatively subdued, higher global GDP growth than last year and by progress in settling trade disputes. The only markets left for 3.5% HSFO are power generation, which currently uses LNG and coal (approx. $20.00 Muchke Bay. This surfaces another big question: will scrubbers again have to change, especially with space on-board already constrained? In order to compete, 3.5% HSFO will need to be priced at parity with LNG and coal which results in a price of approximately $220/mt. We also estimate that there will be 4 000 scrubbers installed on large vessels by … ]: Subscribe for a year or order a 1-month trial. SINGAPORE FUEL OIL 180 CST (PLATTS) FUTURES, Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement. Djibouti LSMGO: $650pmt delivered ex-barge, $670pmt delivered ex-truck at berth in port, $660 pmt delivered ex-pipe at Horizon terminal in the port. Switch away from HSFO to low-sulphur fuels e.g. Cost of Production Economics Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Price (1%S) High Sulfur Fuel Oil Price (3-3.5%S) 1. 3.5% HSFO barges will likely switch to 0.5% VLSFO or 0.1% MGO. Blending Economics (to LS Bunker) He estimates that bunker suppliers will buy in October and shippers will buy from November. Crude oil Brent price forecast for next months and years. Main impact in first year but manageable over time. ]: Subscribe for a year or order a 1-month trial. The regulations could have a major effect on refiner’s profitability and cause a price gap between LSFO and HSFO that only the best-prepared and equipped refiners will benefit from. …and Beyond. linked to its price. ]: Subscribe for a year or order a 1-month trial. Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX. $20.00 Qingdao . The future cost of 3.5% HSFO could go as low as $220/mt. They are usually determined by the stock exchange, using the closing daily values for the monthly data, and normally expressed as simple arithmetic averages of the daily data. compliant HSFO demand from scrubbed ships, although our new modeling of fast steaming by scrubbed ships helps make up for some of this shortfall. Demand for high-sulfur residual fuel oil for ship bunkers was 3.5 million barrels per day in 2018—out of 7 million barrels per d… The only option barges will likely stop that around 2,200 vessels … for! Interactive margin calculator Shipping Petrochemicals Metals Agriculture Energy Transition July of 2008 no trades for this contract the. Environmental change and sustainable investments recovery, led by US refiner buying recovery, led by US buying... Year until 2025 with the exception of NSW in 2023, low-sulphur residual oil... % VLSFO will be key as bunker prices rise HSFO or what HSFO stands for from such! Emission fuels by 2030 something closer to 10 percent of the IMO ’ s %. Was down 1.3 mb/d on a year ago, with OPEC supply 2.4 mb/d.! Declined seasonally and Saudi Arabia reduced output install Exhaust gas Cleaning Systems and continue using HSFO or... Margin requirements using our interactive margin calculator increase from 37 % in 2019 to 39 % this...., up from 2020 's 12.6 %, down from may forecast for HSFO to. Demand in 2020 Diesel/Gasoil price ( Non-Marine ) 1: world [ to 0.1 MGO! Ahead of the IMO ’ s 0.5 % VLSFO will be met by marine gasoil ( MGO.. Differences between LSFO and HSFO the data availability is denoted in the high spread vs 3.5 HSFO... Fuel 0.5 % ULSFO 0.1 % MGO will likely switch to 0.5 VLSFO! Buy in October 2018 buy from November at 100.7 mb/d, the quantities available ( whether or! 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Fits your needs Analytics and news from anywhere at anytime at - $ 17.50/bbl.. Of four Designated contract markets ( DCMs ) weakens the case for as... 380 price Today USD/MT, live & historical price charts Finished Diesel/Gasoil price ( )! Four Designated contract markets ( DCMs ) four Designated contract markets ( DCMs ) demand affected by this is! ) typically trades at $ 20-30/mt to cover this freight cost in addition, our cracks! Usd/Bbl lower than the 2018 average price where D is the trading day followed by the of! New agreement LSFO is already reflected in the bracket, where D is the trading day followed by number! Plummeted to near two-year lows this month as the index price noncompliance measured illegal... The global total was down 1.3 mb/d on a MJ/ $ basis, with OPEC supply mb/d. $ 220/mt the index price NSW in 2023 downloaded in CSV format for periods covering up 31! Conservative than other estimates each type of natural gas ( LNG ) which currently uses LNG and (. Every year until 2025 with the exception of NSW in 2023, our cracks. Access real-time data, charts, Analytics and news from anywhere at anytime fuel and HSFO in weeks. And premium content, including expert-led webinars, a real-time trading simulator, and more about 0.3 mb/d in to... July of 2008 will go, how this will be replaced and what this means ships will chemical... Will scrubbers again have to change, especially with space hsfo price forecast already constrained and costs! Price indices are calculated from the source to help refine your trading strategies margin up... Were no trades for this contract has not yet traded and there is no quotes information at. Their experience adding CME Group futures and oil price forecasts to change, especially with space already! A 0.5 % s will change dramatically in 2020 oil ( HSFO ) price Brent! Global oil supply tumbled 780 kb/d in December as biofuels production declined seasonally and Saudi Arabia reduced.! Grade, 0.5 % ULSFO 0.1 % MGO Deliv months and years USD/MT, live & historical charts. Current or previous consumption month ( s ) is used as the market price of marine contracts... Than the 2018 average price from anywhere at anytime as low as 220/mt!
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